Uniting a Region Divided

Submitted by Ethan Goffman

The 1999 Brookings Institution report, A Region Divided, showed that race, income, jobs and opportunity differ drastically between the eastern and western portion of the Washington metropolitan area. This divide means longer trips and greater congestion during daily commutes, worsening local air quality and additional greenhouse gas emissions. It also means that people with low and moderate incomes are forced further and further from jobs, leading to sprawl that harms our environment.

Since the 1999 report, the scarcity of jobs and development in the east relative to the west has increased, along with job movement away from the urban core. As the following chart shows, since 1970 the DC area has grown far faster toward the west, particularly regarding job creation. The 2007 numbers show a large imbalance between Montgomery and Prince George's counties: 654,700 jobs for 941,500 people in Montgomery County versus 428,200 jobs for 825,300 people in Prince George's (Maryland Politics Watch 2010). Fairfax County's enormous expansion has led to an imbalance that projections show will level off but is unlikely to be corrected. Given that Fairfax job growth has been so much faster than its population growth, and given its lack of transportation options, this means long commutes from outside the county. These numbers contrast starkly with DC's much lower job growth, both current and projected, meaning that the combination of sprawl and an east/west imbalance can be expected to continue.

The increase of jobs in even more far-flung Virginia counties—notably Loudoun, with a projected job growth of 134% from 2005 to 2040—adds to the predicament. Virginia's lack of transportation choices in the areas of maximum growth means an increasing share of commuter trips by car.

While A Region Divided calls for more balanced job growth, the trend has been the opposite. From 1970 to 2007, job growth in the suburbs was far higher than in the city. Most disturbing, job growth in Fairfax was more than 25 times as much in DC itself percentage-wise from 1970 to 2007. Nearly twice as much job growth is projected from 2005 to 2040 in the nearby counties as in DC. If these trends continue, sprawl will get worse while the east-west imbalance will be cemented in place.

Within DC and Montgomery County, too, the jobs are imbalanced toward the west. In DC, community revitalization has not crossed the Anacostia River, stranding the southeast. In Montgomery County, job growth along the I-270 corridor has not been matched in the eastern county, a trend expected to worsen. According to a Sierra Club analysis based on data from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, jobs in the I-270 corridor are projected to grow from 288,373 in 2005 to 430,787 in 2030, a 49% increase; during the same period, jobs in the Georgia Avenue and Route 29 corridors in eastern Montgomery County are projected to grow from 62,858 to 77,417, only a 23% increase. The Sierra Club agrees with Maryland Politics Watch (2010) that "The failure of Prince George's County to create high-wage jobs for its residents is exacting a stunning cost on them in their daily commutes."

Jobs-to-population imbalances add to the time spent in traffic. In 2006, commute times in the four main areas studied were as follows (in minutes):

• Montgomery County - 32.9
• Prince George's County - 35.9
• Fairfax County - 30.8
• District of Columbia - 29.5

Overall, since the 1999 Brookings report, the tendency has been for even more job growth where there are already jobs, while other areas remain underdeveloped. The belief that strong job areas are the "engine of prosperity" and therefore need even more jobs, leads to policies that further divide the region by ignoring the larger land use and transit picture. The situation spurs traffic congestion, increases poverty in the east, and leads to unsustainable development in the west by outstripping the infrastructure. Governmental fragmentation worsens the problem, often leading to development district by district, as if each little area were its own autonomous entity.

The Sustainable Metropolitan DC Committee believes in a more balanced, regional approach, with a strong awareness of how decisions in one part of the region affect the rest. We also believe that jobs and development can be successful in DC east of the Anacostia, and in Prince George's County. Such development has already occurred in parts of DC proper once thought intractable. Although this has largely failed to cross the Anacostia River, there is little reason beyond perception that it can't.

New jobs should especially be encouraged near underdeveloped metro stations (such as at the New Carrollton transportation hub) as integral to mixed-use, transit-oriented development. New development in the eastern parts of the region can take advantage of existing transit, upgrade old infrastructure, and discourage sprawl from the city's core. With more widely spread, quality jobs, a better mix of income levels will naturally occur throughout the region, leading to better schools for all.

Transit improvements should be an often used tool in bridging the divide throughout the region. We especially urge rail on the Woodrow Wilson Bridge to link Metro's various arms, strengthen the region's core, and spur development in southern Prince George's county.

The Sustainable Metro DC Program is committed to facilitating discussion and strategic planning around the Region Divided issue. With the Round 8.0 Cooperative Forecast coming out soon, we urge continued analysis of the data. In particular, we call for the Brookings Institution to produce a greatly needed follow up to their 1999 report.

Sources Cited in This Statement

Brookings Institute. A Region Divided: The State of Growth in Greater Washington, D.C., 1999.

Maryland Politics Watch. Population, Jobs and Commutes in the Washington Region, 2010.

Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Growth Trends to 2040: Cooperative Forecasting in the Washington Region, 2010.

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