The statement below was presented to the Montgomery County Planning Board by Pamela Lindstrom, the Montgomery County Group's lead person on land use planning.
The draft master plan draws an appealing picture of downtown Wheaton, with many of the same features it has now, only bigger and better. There are two potential problems with the vision: (1) It is not what Montgomery County needs Wheaton to be; (2) It is unlikely that private development forces would produce it.
There are several somewhat incompatible functions that Wheaton needs to serve:
The planners state that demand for urban development is lacking, particularly for office or any sort of commercial development except retail; even for high rise housing. The recommended zoning calls for commercial/residence with almost total flexibility; any property could be developed exclusively with low density housing or big box stores. The plan's lack of vision concerning office development and job growth, except potentially in the "long term," is bad for the Countywide sustainability goals, but it is also bad for the lower income residents in the larger Wheaton community.
Analysis done for the Transportation Policy Report showed that the Georgia Avenue Corridor had the lowest job/housing (j/h) ratio in the county at 0.69, compared to about 2.0 in the I-270 Corridor. Now the Georgia Avenue Corridor's j/h ratio is 0.49, lower than in 2000. It is predicted to decline to 0.47 in 2030, by the Round 7.2 forecast.
The Wheaton CBD does have a lot of jobs, 10,200, and a j/h ratio of 4.25. That is nearly a third of the total jobs in the Georgia Ave. Corridor. But consider the quality of the jobs. Nearly 2/3 of jobs in Wheaton CBD are in retail or hospitality, only 1/3 are office jobs. Most job growth will be in retail, thus the share of retail to office jobs will decline only slightly by 2030. Data from the Research Division show that retail jobs pay far less than office (or industrial or other) jobs so lacking in Wheaton ($30,500 for the average retail job, $20,000 for hospitality—restaurant—jobs vs. the County average of $62,400).
The low pay for retail jobs is probably related to the relatively low income of Wheaton CBD and other Wheaton residents (See graph on plan p. 11). The graph shows the share of the County's jobs and households in each of the Transportation Policy Report's large subdivisions, in 2005 and forecast in 2030. Note the increasing dominance of the I-270 corridor in jobs, and declining share in the Georgia Avenue Corridor. Currently 58% of jobs are in the I-270 Corridor, which rises to 64% in 2030. Meanwhile the share in the Georgia Avenue Corridor falls from 7% to 6%. The I 270 Corridor will add about 140,000 jobs in 20 years; the Georgia Avenue Corridor about 1,600.
The vision of Wheaton's future portrayed above should not be just "made the best of" in the sector plan. Wheaton's diverse residents should not be expected to commute to the I-270 Corridor if they want to better their lot. The goal should be growth in professional jobs in downtown Wheaton, near or with transit access for the workforce. Such jobs would be the foundation for better incomes in the area, more demand for new urban housing and more prosperous retail.
Planners say there is no demand by developers to build office buildings in Wheaton. But lack of demand was not met with resignation in the I-270 Corridor. When demand for commercial development and growth of good jobs seemed insufficient in Germantown, Gaithersburg West, etc., ambitious master plans were adopted, and the County's promotion machine moved into high gear. These areas appear to have high priority for new transportation infrastructure. When the Gaithersburg West plan was approved, the 2030 employment growth forecast went up by some 11,000 jobs, mostly non-retail. That is much higher than the growth forecast for the whole Georgia Ave. Corridor (about 2,000 more jobs).
Wheaton CBD along with most eastern county and Metro station policy areas, lost potential for job growth to Gaithersburg West and the I-270 Corridor. This is documented in the table at the end of this statement. The answer from Planning Board and Council members was that the new master plans for Wheaton CBD and the Route 29 Corridor would reduce the inequity.
The Wheaton draft plan is not plan to inspire growth; it seems to just describe the un-dynamic place the growth forecasts foresee. Perhaps not even in equilibrium, perhaps falling farther behind the I -270 Corridor, or even declining. Surely no part of Montgomery County is so depressed that it could not benefit from investment and promotion by County and business officials. Indeed data in the plan shows that Wheaton residents are well educated. If well managed, high value growth would benefit the existing residents, not drive them out.
The plan does point out the County-owned land in Wheaton, mainly parking lots, which can be used the jump start redevelopment. That is the sort of thinking we would like to see in the opening vision statement of the plan, and throughout for that matter. And this is just the sort of smart goal-oriented redevelopment which we would like to see the Economic Development department promote.
We urge planners and policy makers to adopt a plan in which Wheaton reaches its potential as a major Metro accessible urban center, one of the "smartest growth" places in Montgomery County, and then work to make it happen.
| Large Area Comparison - 2005 and 2030 | ||||
| HOUSEHOLDS | JOBS | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Households 2005 |
Round 7.2† 2030 | Jobs 2005 |
Round 7.2† 2030 |
|
| I270 Corridor* | 140,710 | 209,037 | 288,373 | 430,787 |
| Urban Ring | 44,806 | 52,593 | 77,909 | 86,446 |
| Rt. 29 Corridor | 33,396 | 34,456 | 27,066 | 40,025 |
| Ga. Ave Corridor | 44,806 | 79,626 | 35,792 | 37,392 |
| Total East County** | 78,202 | 114,082 | 62,858 | 77,417 |
| I270 Corridor* | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Urban Ring | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Rt. 29 Corridor | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Ga. Ave Corridor | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| Total East County** | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.12 |